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(Ξένη δημοσίευση)-ΑΝΑΚΟΙΝΩΣΗ ΤΥΠΟΥ-ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ-ΔΕΛΤΙΟ ΤΥΠΟΥ ΕΤΕ

ΑΝΑΚΟΙΝΩΣΕΙΣ ΤΥΠΟΥ / Τρίτη 17 Δεκεμβρίου 2024, 12:37 / Πηγή: ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ

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• Greece’s GDP increased by 2.4% y-o-y (+0.3% q-o-q s.a.) in constant price
terms in Q3:2024 – in line with our September 2024 forecast based on NBG’s
Economic Analysis nowcasting model. Solid private consumption,
continuing accumulation of inventories and increasing exports were the
main drivers, though data revisions and another quarter of large inventory
accumulation (including statistical discrepancies) cloud the analysis.
• Private consumption increased by a solid 2.1% y-o-y in Q3:2024, buoyed by
substantial increases in the compensation of employees (up by +9.1% y-o-y
in Q3) reflecting higher real wages, working hours, as well as employment.
Labor market trends in 10M:2024 point to real disposable income growth
above 3.5% y-o-y in 2024 following upon a solid 2.2% in 2023.
• The improvement in the financial position of households is also reflected in
accelerating consumer credit growth (6.1% y-o-y in September) combined
with an upwardly revised saving rate and resilient household cash buffers.
• The Q3 accounts were once again dominated by significant inventory buildup
which contributed 1.9 pps to annual GDP growth in Q3:2024 (3.9 pps in
9M:2024 vs GDP growth of 2.3%). This is partly explained by expectations for
strong demand, persistent frictions in global supply chains and the
increasing contribution of inventory-intensive sectors in GVA growth –
industry and retail trade. Moreover, some large non-residential construction
projects and public works are usually classified as inventories during the
construction phase and then are re-classified as gross fixed capital
formation upon their completion in future revisions of national accounts.
However as in the past, future revisions of the GDP accounts will likely
reclassify such a large inventory accumulation.
• Gross fixed capital formation was held back by base effects – related to
upward revisions in GFCF data for 2022-23 – slowing to 0.3% y-o-y in Q3.
However, the GFCF level in H1:2024 was 8.5% higher than initially estimated
and the GFCF-to-GDP ratio increased to a 13-year high of 15.8% in 9M:2024.
• Export growth picked up to 3.3% y-o-y (-1.9% in H1:2024), on the back of
strong exports of services (+5.1% y-o-y in constant prices terms) and resilient
goods exports (+1.2% y-o-y), despite the unfavorable external conditions.
The limited contribution of tourism may reflect measurement issues and
their classification in inventory levels and statistical discrepancies.
• Encouragingly, latest available information from an albeit limited number of
leading and conjunctural indicators, available for Q4:2024, presage q-o-q
growth of about 0.4%, according to the NBG nowcasting model estimates.
• Combining the model-based estimate with: i) the improving financial
position of households and monetary policy easing, ii) slowing inflation (to
2.4% y-o-y in Q4) and iii) the backloading of Government expenditure of the
ordinary Budget and the PIB (including RRF) which corresponds to a net fiscal
impulse of c.1% of GDP in Q4:2024, raises our baseline forecast of GDP
growth to 2.4% for Q4:2024, as well as for FY:2024. GDP growth is projected
to continue near this pace in 2025 bolstered by fiscal and credit impulses
(+0.4 and +0.3 pps in GDP growth, respectively).
Strong labor market
conditions bolster private
consumption while
business activity and
exports remain solid,
keeping GDP growth at a
2½% pace going into
2025-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q3:2017
Q1:2018
Q3:2018
Q1:2019
Q3:2019
Q1:2020
Q3:2020
Q1:2021
Q3:2021
Q1:2022
Q3:2022
Q1:2023
Q3:2023
Q1:2024
Q3:2024
y-o-y
Labor compensation
Total compensation of employees
(Q3:2024 national accounts estimates)
Total compensation of employees
(Q2:2024 national accounts estimates)
GREECE Macro Flash
GDP Q3:2024
December 2024
NBG | Economic Analysis Division
Greece Macro Analysis Team
86 Aiolou Str., 105 59 Athens, Greece
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 2
Greece:
Macro Flash
Greece’s GDP increased by 2.4% y-o-y
outpacing the euro area average for a
13th consecutive quarter
Private consumption and business
inventory accumulation were the key
drivers of growth whereas the drag
from net exports shrunk due to the
rebound in services exports
Strong labor market conditions and
increasing credit impulse bolster
consumption
Strong labor market conditions bolster private consumption
while business activity and exports remain solid, keeping
GDP growth at a 2½% pace going into 2025
Greece’s GDP increased by 2.4% y-o-y (0.3% q-o-q s.a.) in
constant price terms in Q3:2024 – in line with our September
2024 forecast based on NBG’s Economic Analysis nowcasting
model (NBG, Greece Macro Flash, GDP Q2:2024, September
2024). The main drivers were solid private consumption,
continuing accumulation of business inventories and increasing
services exports, though data revisions and another quarter of
large inventory accumulation (including statistical
discrepancies) cloud the analysis. Annual GDP growth outpaced
the euro area average (+0.9% y-o-y in Q3:2024) for a 13th
consecutive quarter.
Private consumption increased by a robust of 2.1% y-o-y in
Q3:2024 (+1.7% y-o-y in H1:2024) buoyed by the following
factors:
• Increasingly supportive labor market conditions reflected in
a single digit unemployment rate in Q3:2024 − for the first
time in 15 years − combined with healthy employment
growth, higher labor force participation rate (c. 60.5%
compared with a 10-year average of 59.4%) and the ongoing
catch-up in real wages. Specifically, total compensation of
employees was up by a robust 9.1% y-o-y in Q3:2024,
following an upwardly revised 8.5% y-o-y in H1:2024 (the
initial H1:2024 estimate was 5.8% y-o-y), primarily reflecting
higher nominal wages (up by an estimated 7.0% y-o-y in
Q3:2024), including the impact of higher working hours, as
well as rising employment (1.7% y-o-y in Q3:2024).
• Indeed, the labor market has been stronger than previously
understood as the labor compensation level in the national
accounts was revised upwards by 1.6% in 2023 and 3.8% in
H1:2024 or €1.2 bn and €1.5 bn, respectively, above the
previous estimates.
• A stronger credit impulse, with consumer credit growth
increasing by 6.1% y-o-y in September 2024. In fact, net
consumer credit flows in 9M:2024 are at a 15-year high of
€0.4 bn or 0.3% of 9M:2024 GDP.
• Broadly stable household cash reserves, as indicated by the
respective bank deposits data, which remain close to a 17-
year high of €147 bn in September 2024 (+€0.6 bn in
9M:2024). An additional revision of the national accounts
resulted in a less negative saving rate by households
suggesting a healthier financial position. Indeed, the
household saving rate for 2023 was revised to -1.9% of-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
MT
HR
CY
ES
IE
EL
LT
NL
PT
FR
EA
IT
DE
AT
LV
%
Real GDP growth
(Q3:2024)
Y-o-Y growth (%, s.a.) Q-o-Q growth (%, s.a.)-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
Composition of GDP growth by
expenditure component
Consumption
Investment
Net exports
Inventories*
GDP growth (y-o-y)
contributions
in pps
*including
other
statistical
discrepancies14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Q3:2010
Q3:2011
Q3:2012
Q3:2013
Q3:2014
Q3:2015
Q3:2016
Q3:2017
Q3:2018
Q3:2019
Q3:2020
Q3:2021
Q3:2022
Q3:2023
Q3:2024
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12€bn y-o-y
Labor compensation (in €bn, left axis)
Labor compensation (%, right axis)
Consumer loans (%, right axis)
Total compensation of employees
& consumer loans
Sources: ELSTAT & Eurostat
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 3
Greece:
Macro Flash
Labor income trends are far more
supportive than previously thought
Gross fixed capital formation growth
has slowed due to negative base
effects …
… related to the significant upward
revision in GFCF data for the previous
years
disposable income, in the latest release of annual non-
financial sectoral accounts, compared with an initial
estimate of -3.3% and a 10-year average of
-2.1%. The situation is expected to have improved further in
2024 – as real disposable income growth outpaces real
private consumption growth.
All in all, real household disposable income growth is projected
to increase by c. 3.5% y-o-y in FY:2024, from an estimated 2.2%
y-o-y in 2023, with real household disposable income in 2024
exceeding its pre-Covid and pre-inflation shock levels of 2019 by
c.10%.
Gross fixed capital formation slowed markedly to +0.3%
y-o-y (-1.1% q-o-q s.a.) in Q3:2024. GFCF growth was held back
by negative base effects due to the upward revision in GFCF data
for previous years and especially for 2023. In fact, the level of
GFCF, in constant-price terms, was upwardly revised by €3.2 bn
for FY:2023 (11.5% above the initial estimate) and by €1.2 bn for
H1:2024 (8.5% above the initial estimate). Following this
revision, the share of GFCF in GDP climbed to a 13-year high of
15.8% in 2023 and stayed at this level in 9M:2024. GFCF
excluding construction was also revised upwards by €0.8 bn in
H1:2024, to 10.2% of GDP from 10.0% in 2023 – a 15-year high.
The GFCF component revisions for 2023 and H1:2024 mainly
comprised higher expenditure on productivity-enhancing
investment categories, such as machinery equipment and
weapons system, and intellectual property rights.
Within GFCF, it is encouraging that residential investment
rebounded in Q3:2024 – up by 7.2% y-o-y, following a sharp
contraction for 3 consecutive quarters, by 13.1% y-o-y on
average. Looking forward, the pick-up in building permits
issuance (up by 41.2% y-o-y in 8M:2024 from 22.2% y-o-y in
FY:2023 as regards the number of permits), combined with a
strong pipeline of large private investment projects, and
accelerating PIB and RRF spending, presage a strengthening of
construction activity in the coming quarters.
Moreover, continuing monetary policy easing, in conjunction
with high capacity utilization rates in industry and services
(78.0% and 91.5%, respectively, in Q4:2024), bode well for
stronger GFCF growth in 2025 (excluding the impact from any
further revisions).
Despite unfavorable external conditions, export growth picked
up to 3.3% y-o-y (-1.9% in H1:2024), on the back of strong
exports of services (+5.1% y-o-y in constant price terms from
2.2% y-o-y in H1) and resilient goods exports growth (+1.2% y-o-
y in Q3, the same pace as in Q2, with fuel export volumes-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q3:2017
Q1:2018
Q3:2018
Q1:2019
Q3:2019
Q1:2020
Q3:2020
Q1:2021
Q3:2021
Q1:2022
Q3:2022
Q1:2023
Q3:2023
Q1:2024
Q3:2024
y-o-y
Labor compensation
Total compensation of employees
(Q3:2024 national accounts estimates)
Total compensation of employees
(Q2:2024 national accounts estimates)-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
y-o-y
contributions
in pps
Transport equipment (in pps)
Machinery & technology equipment (in pps)
Residential construction (in pps)
Non-residential construction (in pps)
Other investment (in pps)
Total GFCF (y-o-y)
Contribution in annual change in
GFCF by investment component4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
9M24
%GDP
GFCF (Q3:2024 national accounts)
GFCF (Q2:2024 national accounts)*
GFCF excl. construction (Q3 nat. accounts)
GFCF revision
(Q3 vs Q2:2024 national accounts)
*9M:2024 corresponds to H1:2024 data
Sources: ELSTAT & BoG
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 4
Greece:
Macro Flash
Exports of goods and services edged
closer to an all-time high
Services and resilient goods exports
were the key drivers of export
performance
Industry, trade and several services
activities led production (GVA) growth
dropping by 8%). Strengthened activity in the transportation
(shipping) sector as well as in “other services” exports (+3.8% y-
o-y and 14.9% y-o-y in Q3, respectively, in current prices) were
the key drivers of export performance, more-than-offsetting an
unanticipated weakening in tourism (inbound tourism revenue –
in contrast to many sector conjunctural indicators − were
measured as stable in nominal terms in Q3:2024, and
contracted by 2.8% y-o-y in real terms). This decline likely
reflects measurement issues, classified in inventories which are
estimated residually in the GDP compilation.
Import growth remained strong at 4.2% y-o-y in Q3:2024 in
constant prices, albeit slower than in H1:2024 (6.2% y-o-y),
mainly comprising expenditure on production inputs, primary
and construction-related materials and capital goods.
The Q3 GDP accounts were dominated by a significant increase
in inventories which contributed 1.9 pps to annual GDP growth
in Q3:2024 out of a total of 2.4%, and 3.9 pps in 9Μ:2024 vs GDP
growth of 2.3%. This is partly explained by strong demand
prospects, persistent frictions in global supply chains (Suez
Canal and Red Sea) and the increasing contribution of inventory-
intensive sectors in GVA growth – industry and retail trade,
sectors with a high share of intermediate consumption.
Specifically, industry was a key driver of GVA generation, for a 5th
consecutive quarter (+0.7 pps contribution in GVA growth in
Q3:2024 from 1.6 pps in Q2), whereas the broad sector
comprising wholesale and retail trade; transportation and
storage; accommodation and food service activities added
another 0.7 pps to Q3 GVA growth).
Moreover, some large non-residential construction projects and
public works are usually classified as inventories during the
construction phase and then are re-classified as gross fixed
capital formation upon their completion.
As a final point, inventories typically showing a high correlation
with imports especially in categories related to intermediate
products and primary goods. In Q3:2024, however, the positive
impact from higher inventories significantly exceeded the drag
from rising goods imports (-0.8 pps in Q3:2024 from -2.1 pps in
H1).
The contribution of inventories is expected to gradually
normalize, nevertheless the annual impact in FY:2024 GDP is
estimated at +2.8pps, accounting for more than 100 per cent of
FY:2024 GDP growth of 2.4%.
In view of the size of the inventory buildup and the history, the
national accounts have had in the past, in reclassifying such5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q3:2003
Q1:2005
Q3:2006
Q1:2008
Q3:2009
Q1:2011
Q3:2012
Q1:2014
Q3:2015
Q1:2017
Q3:2018
Q1:2020
Q3:2021
Q1:2023
Q3:2024
%GDP€bn
Exports of goods & services
Exports of services (real terms, left axis)
Exports of goods (real terms, left axis)
Total exports (real terms, right axis)
Total exports (nominal terms, right axis)-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
y-o-y
Exports of services & travel
receipts
BoP: Travel receipts (CPI deflated)
Real services exports (nat. accounts)
Implied real services exports excl. tourism-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
y-o-y
Industry
Construction
Retail & wholesale trade, accommodation
Professional, scientific, technical activities
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Other sectors
Total gross value added (right axis)
contributions
in pps
GDP decomposition - production side
(Gross value added by sector)
Sources: ELSTAT, BoG & NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 5
Greece:
Macro Flash
Inventory accumulation added c.2.0
pps to y-o-y growth in Q3:2024
A sharp increase in public expenditure
is expected to bolster activity in
Q4:2024 and Q1:2025
FY:2024 growth at 2.4% on
strengthened fundamentals, despite
the slight weakening of leading
indicators in Q4:2024
inventory buildups (and statistical discrepancies) into other
components of GDP, especially GFCF as noted above, we
expect future revisions to reveal stronger investment and
possibly tourism as growth drivers.
Latest available information, from a limited number of leading
and conjunctural indicator data releases available for Q4:2024,
point to a broadly steady q-o-q growth of about 0.4%, according
to the NBG nowcasting model estimates. Specifically:
• The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) eased to a still solid
106.1, on average, in October-November 2024, compared
with 107.6 in Q3:2024, but still exceeds its level in Q4:2023
(105.2), with the industry sector showing the largest y-o-y
increase.
• According to the latest quarterly Industrial Survey, the
capacity utilization rate in industry remained broadly stable
at a solid 78% in Q4:2024, supporting business decisions for
new investment, while the level of new orders in industry
climbed to an 18-year high.
As regards conjunctural indicators:
• Despite a small seasonal pick-up in October, the
unemployment rate remained in single-digit territory − at
9.8%, compared with 9.5% in Q3:2024 and 10.8% in October
2023 – corresponding to 67.7K additional employees on an
annual basis. On that note, the labor force participation rate
increased in October, to 61.2% from 60.5% on average in Q3.
• VAT revenue (excluding fuel products) accelerated to +16.8%
y-o-y in October 2024 from +12.7% y-o-y in Q3.
• Budget implementation trends point to a larger fiscal
impulse in Q4, with Government expenditure (excluding PIB
& RRF) estimated at €20.2 bn Q4 (from €11.5 bn in Q3:2024
and €16.1 bn in Q4:2023), with spending through the PIB/RRF
planned to rise to €5.9 bn in Q4 from €4.6 bn in Q4:2023.
• Credit growth shows signs of further strengthening, with
credit to the private sector accelerating to 9.1% y-o-y in
October, from 6.6% in September, corresponding to €1.9 bn
of net loan flows to NFCs in October, compared with an
average monthly net flow of €0.4 bn in 9M:2024.
• Business turnover (firms subject to double entry
bookkeeping) increased by 4.2% y-o-y in October, compared
with 5.9% in Q3:2024 (1.9% and 3.0%, respectively, in CPI
deflated terms).-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
Inventories* Imports of goods
contributions
in pps
Inventories & goods imports:
Contributions to GDP growth
*including other statistical discrepancies0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
Q4:2024e
€bn
State Budget primary
expenditure
PIB & RRF expenditure
Primary expenditure (excl. PIB & RRF)1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
Q4:2024e
y-o-y
Real GDP growth vs NBG model
performance
Real GDP (y-o-y, %)
NBG model estimates (y-o-y, %)
Shaded area refers to the range of NBG model-based
simulation outcomes. NBG model forecasts up to Q2:2024
based on unrevised GDP data
Sources: ELSTAT & NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 6
Greece:
Macro Flash2022 2023 2024F 2025F
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4f
GDP (real, % y-o-y, s.a.) 5,8 2,3 2,4 2,3 2,0 3,0 2,2 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,4
GDP (real, % q-o-q, s.a.) … … … … 0,0 1,2 0,1 0,8 0,1 1,2 0,3 0,8
Domestic Demand (y-o-y) 8,0 1,9 3,8 2,3 0,8 3,0 3,3 0,6 5,6 5,0 2,9 2,0
Final Consumption (y-o-y) 6,7 1,8 0,9 1,7 2,6 1,8 1,2 1,7 0,0 0,6 1,3 1,8
Private Consumption (y-o-y) 8,8 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,1 1,7 1,6 1,4 1,6 1,8 2,1 1,7
Public Consumption (y-o-y) 0,1 2,5 -2,7 1,4 4,4 2,4 -0,8 4,0 -6,8 -4,2 -1,4 1,7
Gross Fixed Cap. Formation (y-o-y) 16,2 7,0 3,2 12,9 10,7 8,6 8,6 0,6 2,6 3,7 0,3 6,1
Residential construction 58,2 23,8 0,2 13,8 61,6 52,8 29,2 -18,7 -13,7 -6,9 7,2 16,3
Total GFCF excluding residential 11,9 4,5 3,7 12,7 4,6 3,1 5,7 4,5 5,6 5,7 -0,9 4,5
Inventories & other* (contribution to GDP) 0,2 -0,6 2,8 -1,1 -3,1 0,4 1,2 -0,9 5,5 4,3 1,9 -0,5
Net exports (contribution to GDP) -2,6 0,2 -1,8 -0,1 1,2 -0,2 -1,4 1,4 -3,6 -3,1 -0,7 0,3
Exports (y-o-y) 6,6 1,9 0,8 3,8 8,7 -1,7 0,0 0,9 -5,3 1,7 3,3 3,7
Exports of goods (y-o-y) 4,5 -0,4 -1,2 4,2 8,8 -2,8 -2,8 -4,3 -10,2 1,2 1,2 3,9
Exports of services (y-o-y) 9,4 3,9 3,2 2,7 6,9 -0,1 3,3 5,6 1,7 2,7 5,1 3,3
Imports (y-o-y) 11,9 1,0 4,7 3,4 4,5 -1,0 3,1 -2,4 3,7 8,7 4,2 2,3
2024F
Greece: GDP Growth Decomposition & Outlook
2023
*also including other unallocated expenditure / Sources: ELSTAT & NBG estimates
GDP growth in 2025 will be supported
by a favorable carryover effect of +1.1
pps and positive fiscal and credit
impulses of 0.4 and 0.3 pps,
respectively
Overall, we keep our FY:2024 GDP growth forecast unchanged,
at 2.4% y-o-y – adjusting the model-based estimates for Q4 GDP
growth – on the back of the following factors:
i) the improving financial position of households, ii) slowing
inflation (to an estimated 2.4% y-o-y in Q4 from 2.9% in Q3) and
iii) the backloading of Government expenditure through the
ordinary Budget and the PIB (including RRF) which corresponds
to a net fiscal impulse of 1% of GDP in Q4:2024. Notably, in
FY:2024 the expected fiscal overperformance – the primary
surplus is estimated by NBG at 3.2% of GDP – entails a net fiscal
drag of c.0.5% of GDP (increase in cyclically adjusted primary
fiscal surplus to 2.2% of GDP from 1.7% of GDP in 2023), which
was offset by a credit impulse of 0.8% of GDP (projected net
credit flows higher than €6bn compared with €4.2 bn in 2023).
In 2025, the fiscal stance is expected to become supportive
corresponding to a net fiscal impulse of 0.4% of GDP combined
with a credit impulse of 0.3% of GDP. Accordingly, GDP growth
in 2025 is projected at 2.3% y-o-y, reflecting a robust carryover
effect of +1.1 pps from 2024, strengthened GFCF and a slightly
positive contribution from net exports – with export growth
exceeding import growth – combined with resilient private
consumption and a normalization in inventory contribution.-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Q1:2020
Q2:2020
Q3:2020
Q4:2020
Q1:2021
Q2:2021
Q3:2021
Q4:2021
Q1:2022
Q2:2022
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024
Q4:2024e
FY:2025p
Change in primary fiscal balance (y-o-y)
Credit impulse
% of GDP
(+) implies net positive
impulse and (-) net drag
Credit impulse and change in primary
fiscal balanceSources: ELSTAT & NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 7
Greece:
Macro Flash
Greece: Indicators of Economic Activity in high frequencyJan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
PMI (index level) 57,9 57,8 54,6 54,8 53,8 51,1 49,1 48,8 49,7 48,1 48,4 47,2 49,2 51,7 52,8 52,4 51,5 51,8 53,5 52,9 50,3 50,8 50,9 51,3 54,7 55,7 56,9 55,2 54,9 54,0 53,2 52,9 50,3 51,2 50,9
Industrial confidence (index level) 13,9 10,5 10,0 2,1 5,8 -0,4 -1,7 -2,7 -3,8 -5,5 -4,8 0,3 4,7 5,4 2,3 2,1 -0,4 4,1 1,6 4,0 -1,6 -4,8 -5,0 -5,7 -1,5 -4,2 4,8 1,9 3,6 3,8 -1,4 -2,7 8,2 2,0 5,2
Manufacturing production (y-o-y) 1,9 9,1 5,4 -0,6 6,3 8,8 6,4 5,8 1,6 2,0 2,4 5,8 9,2 7,2 8,7 3,4 3,9 -0,1 1,0 1,8 -0,8 9,3 2,9 5,1 5,3 2,7 -2,3 12,1 4,6 5,6 9,7 3,9 5,3 -3,0
Industrial production (y-o-y) -0,7 5,8 8,8 -4,6 4,3 9,4 6,9 5,1 -1,2 -2,8 -1,0 -1,2 0,7 5,3 0,7 4,4 2,3 -3,0 -1,7 -0,2 1,8 10,3 3,3 4,5 10,3 2,0 -0,6 12,3 6,9 9,8 10,3 3,7 2,6 -2,9
Services confidence (index level) 35,5 43,4 36,3 16,0 18,4 15,1 14,9 19,6 38,3 11,7 20,5 25,2 18,6 18,6 21,6 40,2 35,9 34,4 42,8 36,8 31,0 31,6 39,0 43,6 41,0 39,5 42,5 50,5 54,0 50,3 37,5 38,8 40,0 36,4 22,5
Consumer confidence (index level) -41 -39 -51 -55 -51 -53 -55 -54 -51 -58 -52 -48 -41 -47 -41 -45 -35 -31 -29 -35 -45 -45 -46 -40 -46 -47 -45 -42 -44 -43 -44 -48 -51 -50 -47
Retail confidence (index level) 16,0 10,7 6,9 -1,3 -0,2 -0,9 2,2 -6,5 -0,7 13,5 18,9 7,7 19,9 23,6 23,7 24,8 11,9 18,0 24,4 25,6 30,2 13,5 17,3 22,1 10,5 17,2 4,1 0,5 17,7 17,9 18,9 24,4 13,6 5,5 11,3
Retail trade volume (y-o-y) 7,7 10,8 12,4 8,7 -4,6 1,2 2,1 5,2 1,1 -1,9 1,1 -1,1 0,0 1,1 -8,7 -5,0 0,2 -7,8 -2,9 -3,3 -3,4 -6,1 -4,3 0,8 -9,3 -9,5 5,3 -6,5 10,5 6,0 -2,5 -5,1 -0,6
Construction Permits (y-o-y) 24 32 -6 2 -15 -19 -7 -17 -17 -24 1 47 37 -22 66 -5 5 27 19 17 28 38 26 -13 10 76 13 27 4 -12 -3 -14
House prices (y-o-y, quarterly series) 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,8 10,8 10,8 12,6 12,6 12,6 14,1 14,1 14,1 15,6 15,6 15,6 14,8 14,8 14,8 12,7 12,7 12,7 12,5 12,5 12,5 10,6 10,6 10,6 9,4 9,4 9,4 7,8 7,8 7,8
Construction confidence (index level) -11 -4 0 -6 -26 -14 -34 -32 -28 -26 -25 -25 -27 9 20 6 12 -7 -7 -7 -15 3 5 16 21 8 9 -2 6 15 7 9 5 -1 -8
Employment (y-o-y) 7,6 12,0 13,4 10,2 5,1 4,2 3,2 2,1 2,6 2,4 1,3 2,5 3,6 -0,5 1,2 1,9 1,3 1,9 1,9 0,1 0,9 2,4 -0,4 1,5 1,7 1,9 1,3 3,2 1,2 1,5 0,9 2,5 1,5 1,6
Interest rate on new private sector loans (CPI deflated) -2,4 -3,5 -5,1 -6,1 -7,5 -8,2 -7,9 -7,4 -7,4 -4,2 -3,7 -2,2 -1,6 -0,6 1,2 2,8 3,3 4,1 3,8 3,6 4,5 2,8 3,2 2,6 3,0 2,8 3,0 2,9 3,2 3,5 3,2 2,9 2,7 3,0
Credit to private sector (y-o-y) 0,9 1,4 1,6 2,8 3,3 4,5 5,5 5,8 6,0 5,3 5,0 6,3 7,6 4,8 5,2 3,9 3,1 2,8 1,2 0,9 2,1 2,1 2,8 3,6 3,0 3,8 4,5 4,5 4,8 6,1 6,4 6,9 6,6 9,1
Deposits of domestic private sector (y-o-y) 9,3 8,7 7,0 5,8 6,3 6,9 6,1 5,2 6,2 5,9 4,5 4,8 3,2 2,6 4,5 3,7 3,3 3,5 3,4 3,4 3,4 2,5 2,4 3,0 2,7 3,0 2,6 2,8 2,5 2,9 2,7 3,3 3,3 3,3
Interest rate on new time deposits (households, CPI deflated) -6,1 -7,1 -8,7 -10,0 -11,2 -12,0 -11,5 -11,3 -11,9 -8,9 -8,3 -6,9 -6,5 -5,1 -3,4 -1,8 -1,5 -0,3 -1,0 -1,2 0,1 -1,6 -1,2 -1,7 -1,3 -1,1 -1,5 -1,2 -0,6 -0,4 -0,8 -1,1 -1,1 -0,5
Economic sentiment index (EU Commission, Greece) 114 114 112 103 107 103 99 100 105 98 101 104 106 108 107 109 108 109 110 111 107 105 105 106 108 105 109 109 111 111 107 106 110 107 106
Economic sentiment index (EU Commission, Euro area) 113 115 106 104 105 104 99 99 95 94 95 97 99 99 99 99 97 96 95 94 94 94 94 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96
Exports (excl. oil & shipping, y-o-y, 6m mov.avg) 31,4 30,8 28,3 26,8 27,1 28,0 27,4 28,9 28,5 28,3 23,1 21,0 20,3 15,6 14,2 10,6 8,3 4,9 1,5 -1,1 -4,9 -4,6 -6,1 -8,8 -9,5 -7,6 -8,9 -6,4 -6,0 -4,3 -2,1 -1,3 3,5
Imports (excl. oil & shipping, y-o-y, 6m mov.avg) 41,0 42,2 40,3 38,6 39,2 35,5 31,8 29,2 28,1 26,6 20,1 15,4 12,4 8,2 5,0 1,6 -1,0 -2,6 -3,4 -2,9 -3,5 -3,0 -1,9 -0,5 0,1 1,5 1,7 5,4 4,3 3,4 5,6 3,0 3,8
BoG - Tourist arrivals (y-o-y) 257 315 319 884 673 241 87 44 52 29 45 52 86 81 61 30 14 18 16 10 13 14 28 32 16 26 31 14 21 9 4 7 7
AIA - International passenger traffic development (y-o-y) 297 436 556 616 355 157 63 42 52 46 35 55 103 78 45 30 25 21 18 17 17 21 21 19 13 22 24 22 22 15 11 12 12 11 16
Estimation of total electricity demand in the network (y-o-y) 8,8 3,4 10,4 -6,3 1,6 0,0 -11,8 -13,2 -3,3 -8,3 -11,6 -15,0 -14,8 -2,5 -17,2 -2,2 -6,5 -10,6 11,1 6,1 -1,9 0,9 1,7 3,0 7,0 -4,2 -3,4 -2,8 0,2 28,8 4,3 3,5 3,9 2,5
VAT on other goods & services (y-o-y) 1,6 61,6 22,9 23,6 19,4 24,7 26,7 23,2 11,6 25,4 2,4 12,6 43,2 -6,1 -28,0 15,7 10,6 5,9 6,1 5,9 17,6 0,1 19,9 10,5 6,1 -8,8 41,6 12,4 15,9 6,7 13,9 0,4 14,1 11,0
Business Turnover (y-o-y, double-entry bookkeeping) 29,6 44,2 45,3 37,9 50,1 50,4 38,9 50,3 47,8 32,7 20,4 34,0 24,1 1,3 2,8 -2,1 -0,5 -8,7 -6,7 -10,5 -12,8 -3,8 2,2 -13,2 -1,5 9,7 -2,0 16,1 1,5 2,7 12,7 2,9 1,9 4,2
Color map scale 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Rapid contraction Moderate contraction Slow contraction Stabilization Slow expansion Moderate expansion Rapid expansion
Sources: NBG, BoG, ELSTAT, Ministry of Finance, EU Commission, IHS Markit, IOBE, AIA, ADMIE
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | December 2024 p. 8
Greece:
Macro Flash
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NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION
Nikos S. Magginas, PhD | Chief Economist, Head of NBG Economic Analysis Division
e-mail: nimagi@nbg.gr
NBG GREECE MACRO ANALYSIS TEAM
Katerina Gouveli, MSc
(+30210) 334 2359
e-mail: gouveli.aikaterini@nbg.gr
Eleni Balikou, MSc
(+30210) 334 1198
e-mail: balikou.eleni@nbg.gr
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(+30210) 334 1453
e-mail: athanasiou.eleftherios@nbg.gr
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(+30210) 334 1626
e-mail: tsaroucha.sofia@nbg.gr
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