(Ξένη δημοσίευση)- ΑΝΑΚΟΙΝΩΣΗ ΤΥΠΟΥ- ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ- Δελτίο Τύπου ΕΤΕ
ΑΝΑΚΟΙΝΩΣΕΙΣ ΤΥΠΟΥ / Τετάρτη 11 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024, 12:53 / Πηγή: ΕΘΝΙΚΗ ΤΡΑΠΕΖΑ
[Type here]
pmi
• Greece’s GDP growth accelerated to 2.3% y-o-y in Q2:2024, with q-o-q s.a.
growth at +1.1%, the strongest pace among euro area economies.
• Private consumption increased at a steady annual pace of 2.0% y-o-y in
Q2:2024 (+0.6% q-o-q, s.a.), on the back of: i) supportive labor market
conditions (total nominal compensation of employees was up by 5.6% y-o-y
and by 3.0% y-o-y in CPI-deflated terms), ii) lower CPI inflation (2.6% y-o-y
from 3.1% in Q1), with a more significant deceleration in the food component
(+3.5% y-o-y in Q2 from 6.8% in Q1), iii) rising non-labor income (rents,
interest, and dividends), and iv) accelerating consumer credit (+5.8% in July,
from 4.5% y-o-y in March 2024, with cumulative consumer credit flows in
7M:2024 at a 15-year high of €0.4 bn).
• Gross fixed capital formation edged further upwards, rising by 3.9% y-o-y in
Q2 from 3.1% y-o-y in Q1:2024, despite the negative contribution of total
construction (-2.1% y-o-y). GFCF excluding construction rose by 7.6% y-o-y
in constant price terms, with spending on machinery and transport
equipment up by 12.2% y-o-y in Q2:2024.
• Construction activity was held back, for a second consecutive quarter, by
unsupportive base effects, labor shortages and an estimated slowing in
public works. Residential construction dropped by 7.1% y-o-y (compared
with a decline of 13.9% in Q1:2024 and a strong increase of +45.8% in
Q2:2023) and non-residential construction increased marginally by 0.7%
y-o-y (over a robust +15.1% in Q2:2023).
• A sizeable pipeline of public and private investment projects, more
supportive base effects on construction and accelerating PIB spending are
expected to sustain an annual GFCF growth of 8.2% in FY:2024.
• The external sector experienced strong performance by both goods and
services exports, while buoyant imports largely reflect expenditures on
production inputs rather consumer goods. Nonetheless, net exports had a
strongly negative contribution to Q2 GDP growth of -3.4 pps, as the sharp
increase in imports of production inputs outweighed the positive effect from
the rebound in goods exports (+2.0% y-o-y and +5.2% q-o-q s.a. from -8.6%
y-o-y in Q1) and rising services exports (+2.8% y-o-y).
• The sustained tourism momentum, which remains on track for a new record
year, along with supportive base effects and higher goods exports, should
limit the external imbalances in Q3:2024.
• Strong demand and business activity encouraged further inventory build up,
which added 3.8 pps to annual GDP growth in Q2:2024. However, the net
contribution was limited if we account for the high import content of this GDP
component.
• Production-side data for Q2 showed that GVA generated by the industry
sector contributed 1.6 pps in total GVA growth of 2.0% y-o-y, with the share
of this sector in economy-wide GVA rising to an all-time high of 16.3%.
Similarly, the manufacturing production index climbed to a 16-year high in
Q2:2024, on the back of a broad-based increase in sectoral activity.
• Latest information from the ESI sectoral business surveys for July-August as
well as VAT revenue, PIB and inbound-tourism arrivals trends point to a
modest acceleration in GDP growth in Q3:2024 to c. 2.4% y-o-y, according to
the NBG’s Economic Analysis nowcasting model, with our baseline forecast
for GDP growth in FY:2024 remaining unchanged at 2.4%.
Strong fundamentals −
especially in the labor
market − lead to a broad-
based acceleration in
GDP growth in Q2:2024 to
2.3% y-o-y
GREECE Macro Flash
GDP Q2:2024
September 2024
NBG | Economic Analysis Division
Greece Macro Analysis Team
86 Aiolou Str., 105 59 Athens, Greece
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 2
Greece:
Macro Flash
Greece’s GDP growth accelerated to
2.3% y-o-y in Q2:2024 exhibiting the
strongest q-o-q growth (+1.1% s.a.)
among euro area economies
Activity growth outpaced the euro area
average for a 12th consecutive quarter
Strong domestic demand
(consumption, investment and
inventory accumulation) offset the
sizeable drag from net exports
Strong fundamentals − especially in the labor market − lead
to a broad-based acceleration in GDP growth in Q2:2024 to
2.3% y-o-y
Greece’s GDP growth accelerated to 2.3% y-o-y in Q2:2024
(+1.1% q-o-q s.a., the strongest pace among euro area
economies), from 2.1% y-o-y in Q1:2024, outpacing the euro
area average for a 12th consecutive quarter. The Q2 growth
outcome confirmed the strength of forward-looking and
conjunctural indicators for this period for almost all sectors of
the Greek economy. Private consumption and business
investment were the key drivers of growth from the expenditure
side of GDP and were combined with a new surge in business
inventory accumulation for a second consecutive quarter. These
trends are closely related to a remarkable increase in the value
added generated by the industrial sector in Q2 (industrial GVA
was up by +10.4% y-o-y in constant price terms adding 1.6 pps
to GDP growth in Q2). This spike in industrial activity explains the
sharp increase in goods exports as well as the surge in imports
of production inputs (with the latter also reflected in
inventories).
Private consumption on a steady upward path with demand for
goods gaining traction
Specifically, from the expenditure side of GDP decomposition,
private consumption remained in steady expansion mode in
Q2:2024 – increasing by 2.0% y-o-y from 2.1% in Q1:2024, with
s.a. q-o-q growth at 0.6% – adding 1.4 pps to the annual GDP
growth in this quarter, on the back of:
• Supportive labor market conditions (total nominal
compensation of employees was up by 5.6% y-o-y and
+3.0% y-o-y in CPI-deflated terms in Q2:2024) reflecting an
increase in employment of 1.9% y-o-y and an ongoing
catch-up in real wages, bolstered by the new increase in
the minimum wage of 6.4% y-o-y in April 2024.
• Lower CPI inflation (2.6% y-o-y from 3.1% in Q1) with a
more pronounced deceleration in the food-related
categories (+3.5% y-o-y in Q2 from 6.8% in Q1, reflecting
small declines in some basic goods prices) that gave some
respite to lower income households (with a higher marginal
propensity to consume) and supported consumer demand
for goods, following an annual drop in retail trade volumes
in H2:2023 and Q1:2024.
• Rising non-labor income (rents, interest, and dividends).-5,0
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
Greece
Netherlands
Spain
Croatia
Cyprus
Slovakia
Finland
Belgium
Euro area
France
Italy
Slovenia
Portugal
Germany
Austria
Ireland
%%
Real GDP growth
(Q2:2024)
Q-o-Q growth (%, s.a., left axis)
Y-o-Y growth (%, s.a., right axis)80
85
90
95
100
105
110
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q1:2020
Q2:2020
Q3:2020
Q4:2020
Q1:2021
Q2:2021
Q3:2021
Q4:2021
Q1:2022
Q2:2022
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
GDP index: Greece vs Euro area
Greek GDP EA GDP
index,
Q4:2019=100,
constant prices-5
0
5
10
Q2:2022
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Composition of GDP growth by
expenditure component
Consumption
Investment
Net exports
Inventories*
GDP growth (y-o-y)
contributions
in pps
*including
other
statistical
discrepancies
Sources: ELSTAT & Eurostat
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 3
Greece:
Macro Flash
Increasing employment and wages and
supportive credit conditions bolstered
private consumption
Consumption of goods rebounded
strongly in Q2:2024, exceeding
residents’ demand for services for the
first time in 2½ years
GFCF growth accelerated to 3.9% y-o-y
with spending on machinery and
transport equipment up by 12.2% y-o-y
• Accelerating consumer credit (5.5% y-o-y in June and 5.8%
in July, from 4.5% y-o-y in March 2024, with net consumer
credit flows in 7M:2024 at a 15-year high of €0.4 bn).
Indeed, a rebalancing in the composition of consumer demand
was observed in Q2:2024, with consumption of goods
(approximated by retail trade volume) rebounding strongly
(+2.9% y-o-y from -4.2% y-o-y in Q1:2024 and -3.4% y-o-y in
H2:2023), exceeding services consumption growth for the first
time since Q4:2021. In the same period, the estimated growth of
residents’ spending on services, in constant price terms, slowed
to 0.7% y-o-y from an outstanding 11.3% y-o-y in Q1:2024 and
9.2% y-o-y in FY:2023.
The increase in demand for goods was broad-based, with
consumer durables remaining the only category where sales
volumes declined, due to persistently negative base effects
from the surge in demand for these products in 2022 and
H1:2023. Private consumption is set to remain a major growth
driver (increasing by an estimated 2.0% y-o-y in FY:2024), on the
back of rising real disposable income for households which is
projected at c. 3.0% y-o-y in 2024 from an estimated 3.8% y-o-y
in 2023. On the other hand, public consumption subtracted c. 1
pp from GDP growth in Q2, decreasing further by 3.6% y-o-y
compared with -5.1% y-o-y in Q1.
Fixed capital investment: Further strengthening despite weak
construction activity
Gross fixed capital formation edged further upwards, rising by
3.9% y-o-y in Q2 from 3.1% y-o-y in Q1:2024, despite the
negative contribution of total construction (-2.1% y-o-y). In fact,
GFCF (excluding construction) rose by 7.6% in constant price
terms, with spending on machinery and transport equipment up
by 12.2% y-o-y in Q2:2024. Business investment is expected to
maintain its dynamism, in view of supportive demand
conditions and high capacity utilization rates in industry (81.1%
in Q2 against a 20-year average of 71.3%).
Construction activity was held back, for a second consecutive
quarter, by unsupportive base effects, labor shortages and an
estimated slowing in public works projects. Residential
construction dropped by 7.1% y-o-y (compared with a decline of
13.9% in Q1:2024 and a strong increase of +45.8% in Q2:2023)
and non-residential construction increased marginally by 0.7%
y-o-y (over a robust +15.1% in Q2:2023).
Total GFCF rose to 14.8% of GDP in both Q1 and Q2:2024, the
highest ratio since Q3:2010, compared with a pre-crisis average
of c.22% of GDP in 2001-2008. The existing gap reflects sluggish14
16
18
20
22
24
Q2:2010
Q2:2011
Q2:2012
Q2:2013
Q2:2014
Q2:2015
Q2:2016
Q2:2017
Q2:2018
Q2:2019
Q2:2020
Q2:2021
Q2:2022
Q2:2023
Q2:2024
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10€bn y-o-y
Labor compensation (in €bn, left axis)
Labor compensation (%, right axis)
Consumer loans (%, right axis)
Total compensation of employees
& consumer loans-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q2:2019
Q4:2019
Q2:2020
Q4:2020
Q2:2021
Q4:2021
Q2:2022
Q4:2022
Q2:2023
Q4:2023
Q2:2024
y-o-y
Private consumption and
goods & services sales volume
Real private consumption (national accounts)
Retail trade volume
Consumption of services volume (implied)-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q2:2022
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
y-o-y
contributions
in pps
Transport equipment (in pps)
Machinery & technology equipment (in pps)
Residential construction (in pps)
Non-residential construction (in pps)
Other investment (in pps)
Total GFCF (y-o-y)
Contribution in annual change of
GFCF by investment component
Sources: ELSTAT, Bank of Greece & NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 4
Greece:
Macro Flash
GFCF excluding construction climbed
to a 15-year high of 9.4% of GDP in
H1:2024, in line with its 2001-2008
average
Goods imports continued to increase
rapidly, comprising mainly production
inputs as well as food and beverages
Goods exports rebounded strongly in
Q2, mainly reflecting industrial and
food products, while oil refining
products exports have also increased
construction activity, which amounted to 5.3% of GDP in
H1:2024 compared with an average of 12.7% of GDP in 2001-
2008, with residential construction accounting for 80% of this
shortfall. In contrast, GFCF excluding construction climbed to a
15-year high of 9.4% of GDP in H1:2024 and is in line with its
2001-2008 average. Public investment, comprising both
construction and non-construction related components, stood
at 2.6% of GDP in Q1:2024 (latest available data) and 3.8% in
2023, compared with an average of 3.4% in the crisis years
(2010-2017) and 5.4% in 2001-2008.
Nonetheless, a sizeable pipeline of public and private
construction projects, the increasing issuance of residential
and non-residential building permits (number of permits up by
+26.9% y-o-y in 5M:2024) and more supportive base effects,
bode well for stronger construction growth in H2:2024, although
some downside risks remain. Labor shortages and higher
material costs continue to constrain building activity, whereas
the temporary freeze (implemented by most municipalities in
Attica) on constructions using the bonuses of the New Building
Code (NBC) until a Council of State decision is issued, started
to weigh on permit issuance (-19.5% y-o-y in May).
Moreover, public investment activity seems to have slowed in
2Q:2024, with PIB expenditure (including RRF) dropping by 0.2
pps of GDP in Q2 (annualized) compared with the same quarter
in the previous year, following an increase of 0.3 pps of GDP in
Q1:2024 (+38.5% y-o-y). Public investment is expected to gain
traction, with €7.0 bn of funding planned to be disbursed in
H2:2024 according to the latest Stability Program targets,
supporting GFCF in this period as well as in early 2025.The above
factors are expected to support an annual GFCF growth of c.
8.0% in FY:2024.
The external sector experienced strong performance by both
goods and services exports, while buoyant imports largely
reflect expenditure on production inputs rather consumer
goods
Net exports had a strongly negative impact on GDP growth for a
second consecutive quarter, estimated at -3.4 pps in y-o-y terms
in Q2:2024 (-2.9 pps in Q1), with a further surge in imports
outweighing the positive effect from the rebound in total exports.
Goods exports recovered sharply in Q2 (+2.0% y-o-y and +5.2%
q-o-q s.a. from -8.6% y-o-y in Q1:2024), in line with survey data
on export orders for this period, with food and industrial goods
categories (excluding capital goods) as well as fuels posting the
strongest increases. Services exports growth, in constant price
terms, picked up to 2.8% y-o-y in Q2:2024 from 2.4% in Q1, on0
5
10
15
20
Q2:2009
Q3:2010
Q4:2011
Q1:2013
Q2:2014
Q3:2015
Q4:2016
Q1:2018
Q2:2019
Q3:2020
Q4:2021
Q1:2023
Q2:2024
Gross fixed capital formation
(% of GDP)
Residential construction (%GDP)
Non-residential construction (%GDP)
GFCF excl. total construction (%GDP)
% GDP-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Q1.24
Q2.24
y-o-y
Non-oil Greek goods imports
(volume)
Other
Consumer goods
Transport equipment
Capital goods
Industrial supplies
Food & beverages
Total non-oil goods imports (y-o-y, right axis)
contributions in total
non-oil imports, in pps-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Q1.24
Q2.24
y-o-y
Non-oil Greek goods exports
(volume)
Other
Consumer goods
Transport equipment
Capital goods
Industrial supplies
Food & beverages
Total non-oil goods exports (y-o-y, right axis)
contributions in total
non-oil exports, in pps
Sources: ELSTAT, Eurostat & NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 5
Greece:
Macro Flash
Tourism activity remains on track for a
new record year
A c. 4-pp boost to Q2 GDP growth from
inventory accumulation was largely
offset by higher import spending
Industrial GVA climbed to an all-time
high as per cent of GDP, accounting for
c. 80% of total GVA growth in Q2:2024
the back of broadly balanced contributions from tourism,
transportation and other services exports.
Demand for imports remained buoyant (total imports were up by
9.6% y-o-y in constant price terms, entailing a 4.2-pp drag on Q2
GDP growth), with goods imports rising by 10.5% y-o-y to an all-
time high of 35.2% of GDP (46.4% of GDP including imports of
services). Domestic demand and production remain highly
dependent on imported inputs, especially in periods of
increasing fixed capital formation on machinery and equipment,
and strengthened industrial activity. Indeed, a significant part of
import demand was related to increasing production needs and
capacity expansion projects and, to a lesser extent, to imports
of consumer goods such as food, beverages, and consumer
durables. Moreover, the production of exports as well as of
tourism-related services also seem to have a significant import
content, especially as regards higher value added segments.
The sustained tourism momentum, which remains on track for a
new record year, along with supportive base effects and higher
goods exports, should limit the external imbalances in Q3:2024.
However, downside risks remain considerable in view of
subdued external demand (signs of weakening in export orders
in Q3) and persistently high import needs of the business sector.
Strong demand and business activity encouraged further
inventory build up
The above trends also explain the new sharp increase in
business inventories, which contributed 3.8 pps (4.3 pps
including other statistical discrepancies) to annual GDP growth
in Q2:2024, from 2.7 pps in Q1 (3.9 pps including statistical
discrepancies). Strong domestic demand, rising production
orders and a normalization in commodity prices, in conjunction
with persistent supply chain tensions (Suez Canal and Red Sea),
encouraged a higher-than-usual pace of inventory stockpiling of
production inputs as well as a faster accumulation of stocks of
finished, semi-finished or intermediary goods by Greek firms.
Moreover, some large non-residential construction projects and
public works are usually classified as inventories during the
construction phase and then are re-classified as gross fixed
capital formation upon their completion. Positive base effects
from the significant drop in business inventories in H1:2023 –
when they declined to the lowest level in 5 years – have also
bolstered inventory growth. The contribution of inventories is
expected to gradually normalize in H2:2024 as base effects turn
negative, with the annual impact in 2024 GDP estimated at +1.6
pps.0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
mn
persons
International arrivals at Athens
International Airport
2021 2022
2023 2024-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Q1:2021
Q2:2021
Q3:2021
Q4:2021
Q1:2022
Q2:2022
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Inventories Imports of goods
contributions
in pps
Inventories & goods imports:
Contributions to GDP growth-1
0
1
2
3
-1
0
1
2
3
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
y-o-y
Industry
Construction
Retail & wholesale trade, accommodation
Professional, scientific, technical activities
Agriculture, forestry, fishing
Other sectors
Total gross value added (right axis)
contributions
in pps
GDP decomposition - production side
(Gross value added by sector)
Sources: ELSTAT & AIA
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 6
Greece:
Macro Flash
Greece’s manufacturing PMI remains
the highest in the euro area over the
past 1½ year
Manufacturing production volumes
have shown remarkable resilience to
the global slowdown
Increasing non-fuel VAT revenue
growth points to strengthened activity
at the beginning of Q3:2024
Industry’s contribution to GDP at record highs
Production-side data shed additional light on GDP trends,
revealing the dominant role of the industrial sector − which has
a large export component − in gross value added (GVA) growth.
Indeed, the GVA generated by the industry sector (mainly
comprising mining, manufacturing, energy supply, and waste
management) had the largest contribution in total GVA in 25
years (1.6 pps out of total GVA growth of 2.0% y-o-y) in Q2:2024.
Similarly, the share of industry in economy-wide GVA rose to an
all-time high of 16.3% (excluding the years 2020-21 when Covid-
related base effects and restrictions applied on services
distorted the estimated sectoral contributions) against a 20-year
average of 14.6%. The broad sector of trade and tourism-related
services (mainly comprising wholesale and retail trade,
transportation and storage, accommodation and food service
activities) added 0.3 pps to Q2 GVA growth. The dynamism of
industrial activity is also reflected in manufacturing production
data, with the respective production volume index surging to a
16-year high in Q2:2024, on the back of a broad-based increase
in sectoral activity, with energy and oil refining industries,
chemicals, and food products accounting for the major part of
production growth in this quarter.
Forward-looking indicators point to accelerating GDP growth
in y-o-y terms
• The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) eased to a still solid
106.6, on average, in July-August 2024, compared with 110.0
in Q2:2024 and a FY:2023 average of 107.6, mainly due to a
softening in consumer and industrial confidence. Most
notably, confidence in the services, retail trade, and
construction sectors remained in healthy expansion territory
– significantly above their long-term average and broadly in
line with their H1:2024 average – with forward-looking
components of the surveys pointing to a steady expansion of
activity and a positive assessment of demand conditions.
• Moreover, capacity utilization rate in industry remained solid
at 78.2 in Q3:2024, from 81.1 in Q2, (according to the latest
quarterly Industrial Survey of the ESI), supporting business
decisions for new investment.
• Manufacturing PMI points to a sustained upward momentum
in manufacturing production, averaging 53.1 in July-August,
from 54.7 in Q2:2024, and remaining the highest in the euro
area (45.8 in July-August from 46.3 in Q2).
• Accordingly, the manufacturing production index increased
by 10.2% y-o-y in July 2024 from 7.4% y-o-y in Q2, on the back25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Aug-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
Feb-20
Aug-20
Feb-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Aug-23
Feb-24
Aug-24
index
PMI in manufacturing
(Greece vs Euro area)
Values below 50 indicate
a decrease, values above
50 indicate an increase
Manuf. PMI range in Euro area (excl. Greece)
Average manufacturing PMI in Euro area
Greece: Manufacturing PMI-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
y-o-y, 3m.
m.a.
Manufacturing Production:
Greece vs Euro Area
Greece (y-o-y, 3m. m.a.)
Euro area (y-o-y, 3m. m.a.)-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q2:2019
Q4:2019
Q2:2020
Q4:2020
Q2:2021
Q4:2021
Q2:2022
Q4:2022
Q2:2023
Q4:2023
Q2:2024
y-o-y
VAT (excl. fuels) revenue & GDP
growth per quarter
VAT excl. fuels revenue (y-o-y)
GDP nominal (y-o-y, nsa)
Jul-2024
Sources: ELSTAT, Greek Ministry of Finance S&P &
NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 7
Greece:
Macro Flash2022 2023 2024F
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3f Q4f
GDP (real, % y-o-y, s.a.) 5,7 2,0 2,4 2,0 2,6 2,1 1,3 2,1 2,3 2,4 2,8
GDP (real, % q-o-q, s.a.) … … … 0,0 0,9 0,1 0,4 0,8 1,1 0,1 0,8
Domestic Demand (y-o-y) 6,3 1,4 3,7 0,4 2,3 2,7 0,3 4,8 5,4 2,3 2,5
Final Consumption (y-o-y) 6,3 1,5 1,2 1,8 1,6 1,0 1,6 0,6 0,9 1,8 1,4
Private Consumption (y-o-y) 7,6 1,6 2,0 1,1 1,9 1,3 2,1 2,1 2,0 2,5 1,3
Public Consumption (y-o-y) 2,1 1,4 -2,3 3,7 1,5 -1,1 1,4 -5,1 -3,6 -0,4 0,0
Gross Fixed Cap. Formation (y-o-y) 11,7 4,0 8,2 8,2 9,3 5,1 -5,5 3,1 3,9 9,9 16,3
Residential construction 33,9 20,0 -1,2 48,5 45,8 27,5 -18,8 -13,9 -7,1 2,5 15,6
Total GFCF excluding residential 9,2 1,9 9,7 3,6 5,2 2,2 -3,2 5,8 5,6 11,1 16,4
Inventories & other* (contribution to GDP) -0,5 -0,4 1,7 -2,3 -0,3 1,2 -0,3 3,9 4,3 -0,6 -0,9
Unallocated expenditure (contribution to GDP) 0,1 0,2 … 0,0 1,2 0,6 -0,9 1,2 0,6 … …
Net exports (contribution to GDP) -1,0 0,5 -1,5 1,6 0,1 -0,8 1,0 -2,9 -3,4 -0,1 0,1
Exports (y-o-y) 6,2 3,7 0,9 9,5 0,2 2,7 2,6 -3,7 2,1 2,2 3,0
Exports of goods (y-o-y) 3,7 2,8 0,0 10,7 0,4 1,6 -1,0 -8,6 2,0 2,5 4,7
Exports of services (y-o-y) 9,3 4,2 3,1 6,2 1,0 4,6 5,2 2,4 2,8 3,2 4,0
Imports (y-o-y) 7,7 2,1 4,2 4,6 0,0 4,1 0,0 3,1 9,6 2,1 2,3
*also including other unallocated expenditure / Sources: ELSTAT & NBG estimates
2023 2024F
Greece: GDP Growth Decomposition & Outlook
High capacity utilization rate in
industry points to strong demand and a
need for capacity enhancing
investments
NBG Economic Research’s nowcasting
model points to an acceleration in
annual GDP growth in Q3
of sustained production increases in all major
manufacturing subsectors.
• As regards conjunctural indicators, VAT revenue (excluding
fuel products) accelerated to 14.5% y-o-y in July 2024 from
13.5% y-o-y in Q2, while PIB and RRF disbursements in July
2024 were €0.3 bn higher than in July 2023 (+50.1% y-o-y).
• International arrivals at the Athens International Airport
continued to exhibit double-digit growth of 11.5% y-o-y, on
average, in July-August 2024, compared with 19.5% y-o-y in
Q2, while flight planning and hotel bookings point to a
sustained upward trend in arrivals in September-October.
• Credit expansion to the private sector picked up further,
increasing by 6.4% y-o-y in July from 6.1% y-o-y in June, with
credit to NFCs at a 16-month high of 9.7% y-o-y and
consumer credit at a 15-year high of 5.8% y-o-y in the same
month.
• ECB decisions for a gradual normalization in monetary policy
are expected to encourage private sector’s spending
decisions and, in particular, new fixed capital investment.
The nowcasting model of NBG’s Economic Analysis points to a
further acceleration in GDP growth in Q3:2024, close to 2.5% y-
o-y, with risks skewed to the upside if external demand
conditions improve. The H1:2024 activity outcome and
projected GDP growth for Q3:2024 bode well for a FY:2024
growth of 2.4% y-o-y, in line with our previous forecast released
in June 2024.-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q3:2017
Q1:2018
Q3:2018
Q1:2019
Q3:2019
Q1:2020
Q3:2020
Q1:2021
Q3:2021
Q1:2022
Q3:2022
Q1:2023
Q3:2023
Q1:2024
Q3:2024
y-o-y,
3m m.a.
y-o-y
Fixed investment excl. residential (left axis)
Capacity utilization in industry (right axis)
GFCF (excluding residential
construction) & capacity utilization0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q3:2022
Q4:2022
Q1:2023
Q2:2023
Q3:2023
Q4:2023
Q1:2024
Q2:2024
Q3:2024e
y-o-y
Real GDP growth vs NBG model
performance
Real GDP (y-o-y, %)
NBG model estimates (y-o-y, %)
Shaded area refers to the range of NBG model-based
simulation outcomes
Sources: ELSTAT, European Commission & NBG Econ. Analysis estimates
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 8
Greece:
Macro Flash
Greece: Indicators of Economic Activity in high frequencyJan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
PMI (index level) 57,9 57,8 54,6 54,8 53,8 51,1 49,1 48,8 49,7 48,1 48,4 47,2 49,2 51,7 52,8 52,4 51,5 51,8 53,5 52,9 50,3 50,8 50,9 51,3 54,7 55,7 56,9 55,2 54,9 54,0 53,2 52,9
Industrial confidence (index level) 13,9 10,5 9,9 2,0 5,8 -0,5 -1,8 -2,8 -3,5 -5,5 -4,6 0,4 4,7 5,4 2,2 2,1 -0,4 4,0 1,5 3,9 -1,2 -4,9 -4,8 -5,6 -1,5 -4,2 4,7 1,9 3,5 3,7 -1,6 -2,9
Manufacturing production (y-o-y) 1,9 9,1 5,4 -0,6 6,3 8,8 6,4 5,8 1,6 2,0 2,4 5,8 9,2 7,2 8,7 3,4 3,9 -0,1 1,0 1,8 -0,8 9,3 2,9 5,1 5,1 2,6 -2,3 11,7 4,9 5,8 10,2
Industrial production (y-o-y) -0,7 5,8 8,8 -4,6 4,3 9,4 6,9 5,1 -1,2 -2,8 -1,0 -1,2 0,7 5,3 0,7 4,4 2,3 -3,0 -1,7 -0,2 1,8 10,3 3,3 4,5 10,2 2,0 -0,6 12,0 7,1 9,9 10,6
Services confidence (index level) 32,7 41,5 33,3 11,7 16,3 14,9 16,9 22,2 43,7 14,8 21,8 25,3 15,7 16,6 18,4 36,0 33,9 34,2 44,8 39,4 36,6 34,7 40,2 43,6 38,0 37,4 39,3 46,3 52,1 50,2 39,6 41,4
Consumer confidence (index level) -41 -39 -51 -55 -51 -53 -55 -54 -51 -58 -52 -48 -41 -47 -41 -45 -35 -31 -29 -35 -45 -45 -46 -40 -46 -47 -45 -42 -44 -43 -44 -48
Retail confidence (index level) 15,9 10,7 7,0 -1,2 0,0 -0,6 2,5 -6,2 -0,9 12,7 18,6 7,5 19,8 23,6 23,8 25,0 12,2 18,3 24,7 26,0 30,0 12,7 16,9 21,9 10,5 17,3 4,2 0,7 18,0 18,3 19,3 24,8
Retail trade volume (y-o-y) 7,7 10,8 12,4 8,7 -4,6 1,2 2,1 5,2 1,1 -1,9 1,1 -1,1 0,0 1,1 -8,7 -5,0 0,2 -7,8 -2,9 -3,3 -3,4 -6,1 -4,3 0,8 -9,3 -9,5 5,3 -6,5 10,5 5,9
Construction Permits (y-o-y) 24 32 -6 2 -15 -19 -7 -17 -17 -24 1 47 37 -22 66 -5 5 27 19 17 28 38 26 -13 10 76 13 27 4
House prices (y-o-y, quarterly series) 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,8 10,8 10,8 12,6 12,6 12,6 14,1 14,1 14,1 15,6 15,6 15,6 14,8 14,8 14,8 12,6 12,6 12,6 12,4 12,4 12,4 10,6 10,6 10,6 9,2 9,2 9,2
Construction confidence (index level) -11 -4 0 -6 -25 -14 -33 -31 -28 -26 -26 -25 -27 9 20 6 12 -7 -7 -7 -15 3 4 15 21 8 9 -2 6 16 8 10
Employment (y-o-y) 7,6 12,0 13,4 10,2 5,0 4,2 3,2 2,1 2,6 2,4 1,3 2,5 3,6 -0,5 1,2 1,9 1,3 1,9 1,9 0,1 0,9 2,5 -0,4 1,5 1,7 1,9 1,3 3,3 1,1 1,5 0,6
Interest rate on new private sector loans (CPI deflated) -2,3 -3,5 -5,0 -6,0 -7,5 -8,1 -7,9 -7,4 -7,4 -4,2 -3,6 -2,2 -1,6 -0,6 1,2 2,8 3,3 4,1 3,8 3,6 4,5 2,8 3,2 2,6 3,0 2,8 3,0 2,9 3,2 3,5 3,2
Credit to private sector (y-o-y) 0,3 0,7 1,1 2,4 2,9 4,2 5,5 5,7 6,0 5,2 4,9 6,2 5,6 4,7 5,1 3,8 3,0 2,7 1,1 0,8 2,0 2,0 2,7 3,6 2,9 3,7 4,3 4,4 4,7 6,0 6,3
Deposits of domestic private sector (y-o-y) 9,3 8,7 7,0 5,8 6,3 6,9 6,1 5,2 5,9 5,6 4,2 4,5 3,2 2,6 4,5 3,7 3,3 3,5 3,4 3,4 3,4 2,5 2,4 3,0 2,7 3,0 2,6 2,8 2,5 2,9 2,7
Interest rate on new time deposits (households, CPI deflated) -6,1 -7,1 -8,7 -10,0 -11,2 -12,0 -11,5 -11,3 -11,9 -8,9 -8,3 -6,9 -6,5 -5,1 -3,4 -1,8 -1,5 -0,3 -1,0 -1,2 0,1 -1,6 -1,2 -1,7 -1,3 -1,1 -1,5 -1,2 -0,6 -0,4 -0,8
Economic sentiment index (EU Commission, Greece) 113 114 111 102 106 103 100 100 105 99 101 104 106 107 107 108 107 109 111 112 108 106 105 106 107 105 108 109 111 111 107 106
Economic sentiment index (EU Commission, Euro area) 113 115 106 104 105 104 99 99 95 94 95 97 99 99 99 99 97 96 95 94 94 94 94 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 97
Exports (excl. oil & shipping, y-o-y, 6m mov.avg) 31,4 30,8 28,3 26,8 27,1 28,0 27,4 28,9 28,5 28,3 23,1 21,0 20,3 15,6 14,3 10,7 8,4 4,8 1,1 -1,6 -5,7 -6,0 -7,6 -10,3 -10,7 -8,6 -9,8 -6,7 -6,3 -4,3
Imports (excl. oil & shipping, y-o-y, 6m mov.avg) 41,0 42,2 40,3 38,6 39,2 35,5 31,8 29,2 28,1 26,6 20,1 15,4 12,4 8,3 5,1 1,6 -1,0 -2,6 -3,6 -3,0 -3,7 -3,1 -2,1 -2,8 -2,1 -0,7 -0,4 3,4 2,4 3,9
BoG - Tourist arrivals (y-o-y) 257 315 319 884 673 241 87 44 52 29 45 52 86 81 61 30 14 18 16 10 13 14 28 32 16 26 31 14 21 9
AIA - International passenger traffic development (y-o-y) 297 436 556 616 355 157 63 42 52 46 35 55 103 78 45 30 25 21 18 17 17 21 21 19 13 22 24 22 22 15 11 12
Estimation of total electricity demand in the network (y-o-y) 8,8 3,4 10,4 -6,3 1,6 0,0 -11,8 -13,2 -3,3 -8,3 -11,6 -15,0 -14,8 -2,5 -17,2 -2,2 -6,5 -10,6 11,1 6,1 -1,9 0,9 1,7 3,0 7,0 -4,2 -3,4 -2,8 0,2 28,8 3,9
VAT on other goods & services (y-o-y) -4,2 58,9 27,7 20,9 25,6 15,0 22,4 23,8 20,7 27,9 16,0 5,7 58,4 -7,5 10,6 17,3 10,7 11,4 11,8 11,5 4,2 4,4 12,9 11,7 6,7 12,5 -3,2 18,0 11,7 9,7 14,5
Business Turnover (y-o-y, double-entry bookkeeping) 29,6 44,2 45,3 37,9 50,1 50,4 38,9 50,3 47,8 32,7 20,4 34,0 24,1 1,3 2,8 -2,1 -0,5 -8,7 -6,7 -10,5 -12,8 -3,8 2,2 -13,2 -1,5 9,7 -2,0 16,1 1,5 2,7
Color map scale 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Rapid contraction Moderate contraction Slow contraction Stabilization Slow expansion Moderate expansion Rapid expansion
Sources: NBG, BoG, ELSTAT, Ministry of Finance, EU Commission, IHS Markit, IOBE, AIA, ADMIE
NBG ECONOMIC ANALYSIS | Greece: Macro Flash | September 2024 p. 9
Greece:
Macro Flash
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NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DIVISION
Nikos S. Magginas, PhD | Chief Economist, Head of NBG Economic Analysis Division
e-mail: nimagi@nbg.gr
NBG GREECE MACRO ANALYSIS TEAM
Katerina Gouveli, MSc
(+30210) 334 2359
e-mail: gouveli.aikaterini@nbg.gr
Eleni Balikou, MSc
(+30210) 334 1198
e-mail: balikou.eleni@nbg.gr
Eleftherios Athanasiou, MSc
(+30210) 334 1453
e-mail: athanasiou.eleftherios@nbg.gr
Sofia Tsaroucha, MSc
(+30210) 334 1626
e-mail: tsaroucha.sofia@nbg.gr
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