The necessity of Europe assuming more initiatives in defense planning and in supporting Ukraine, as well as Greece's potential capability in a deterrent military force were mentioned by Ian Brzezinski, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, in an interview to Athens-Macedonian News Agency (ANA-MPA) on the sidelines of the 10th Delphi Economic Forum.

Speaking to ANA-MPA journalists Nick Drossos, Brzezinski responded to a sense of fear that the United States will withdraw from Europe. "Being here at the Delphi Economic Forum, you can get a palpable sense of uncertainty, almost fear, that America is inevitably withdrawing from Europe, that the transatlantic relationship, the security relationship is at an end. And I think that's premature," he underlined.

Yet he added, "It's a concern that's very palpable in the discussions here, but it's premature to conclude that's happened. That's not to say there aren't dynamics that could lead to that. Certainly I have my concerns about President Trump and his view of American interests in Europe. He seems to feel that we don't have security interests in Europe, he's signaling that he wants to reduce our force presence in Europe. He seems disinterested in a leadership role in Europe. And while that may be true, that doesn't mean the end of the transatlantic relationship. In fact, I would go so far as to say I'm more concerned about European overreaction to his policies, which could do more lasting and permanent damage to the alliance than what Trump can do over the next four years. And I think the real question, you know - one has to explore what are the motivations behind Trump, what can one do to check this, but not so much what America needs to do to check it, as much as what does Europe need to do in this moment."

Asked what he thinks Europe should do, he stressed that "it needs to take a posture of strategic parity. It needs to adopt a posture in which it is an equal leader of the alliance. It shares an equal responsibility in the alliance with the United States. It demonstrates it has equal capacity. It has agency, and it needs exercise that. You know, when one talks about fears of American withdrawal... that actually signals kind of a helplessness that actually animates Trump's worst perceptions of Europe. And when one talks about strategic autonomy, be careful. You may actually end up getting that. Think about strategic parity, leveraging the power that Europe has to shape its own destiny and above all to shape and to preserve and strengthen the transatlantic security relationship."

Referring to the American stance that China is the primary enemy, Brzezinski replied, "In the United States, it's been a general bipartisan consensus that the primary challenge - not necessarily the most urgent challenge, but the primary challenge - is China. In terms of its geopolitical stature, its economic might, its technological prowess, its assertiveness both within the region and globally. We use the phrase 'pacing challenge'. And while China may be the pacing challenge, Russia is the urgent challenge. It's the one that's most aggressive using military force against a neighbor, jeopardizing transatlantic security interests. But I've got to say, I'll continue on a point, Europe has to not only speak but act that it recognizes that Russia is the most urgent threat, that it is a threat, it's an existential threat. And right now, I don't think Europe is doing that, aside from the Ukrainians. And I can assure you this, Trump is not going to be more committed to the defense of Europe than the Europeans are. So if Europe wants to change Trump's attitude towards the Euro-Atlantic relationship, it needs to take more decisive action against Russia. It needs to leverage its economic power to body-slam the Russian economy, to shut down its war economy. It needs to move more decisively in the standing up of a deterrent force to secure the peace. Only after it does that can you really expect the Trump administration to do what needs to do." 

The analyst was also asked what he thought of the largle-scale rearmament of Germany, and the concerns it raises in view of its role in the past two World Wars. "Not to quote Radosław Sikorski , the foreign minister of Poland, who understands history more than many, he put it well, he's more afraid of a weak Germany than a powerful Germany. And I think that captures it well. I'm confident enough in Germany that it will use such force responsibly," Brzezinski asserted.

Responding to whether he sees the prospect that what is called 'Pax Americana' will end in Europe and the East Mediterranean, he noted, "Again, I think it's premature to say that we are in irreversible withdrawal of American presence in Europe. It's what Europe is going to do about it. I will say that if that were to happen, I would think it would be incredibly destabilizing. I think America, because of its geographic distance, its geopolitical, geoeconomics, military magnitude, combined with the shared values it has with Europe, has been a constructive unifying force in Europe and has contributed constructively to the mitigation of tensions between countries, not just in this region, but elsewhere in Europe. So I am one who would be deeply opposed to an American withdrawal from Europe, but again I've got to emphasize that Europe has agency to shape this, and you mentioned these plans of European defense expenditures and military modernization and increasing a capacity. The EU's $ 800 million plan, $ 150 million fund and such, those are all plans that will only yield results in 5-10 years. The moment is now, and the focus has to be Ukraine, and Europe has to exercise the power with what it has today. That is the decisive issue."

Brzezinski was also asked what his opinon was on Russia's willingness to reach a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. Russia, he said, "will only be willing when Europe and the United States together stand much more forcefully to demonstrate that they are truly committed to securing Ukraine. Essentially, they're committed to ensuring that Ukraine wins this war. The moment Russia senses that, it will come to the ceasefire table. [...] We've been generous enough to keep Ukraine alive. We haven't been generous enough to enable Ukraine to win, and the good news is Ukraine is still fighting valiantly. The bad news is that we're getting Russia to leverage its economic magnitudes, its political magnitudes and military magnitudes to sandpaper them down, the Ukrainians." 

Asked if the idea was to send more money to Ukraine, the Atlantic Council analyst said, " I'd say it's more than that. It's leveraging economic force against Russia. That means real sanctions. It's, I would say, also getting more assertive and supporting opposite domestic opposition within Russia, in Russia's own backyard. And third is demonstrating military commitment, including not only just the willingness, but through action, the deployment of a deterrent force in Ukraine. That is what's going to be required to change Putin's view. Remember, when he had - what he sees right now is the West begging for a ceasefire. To him, that's a green light encouragement to continue on. You have to think like an old Soviet KGB agent that he is, second-generation KGB agent. He thinks in Soviet terms, he thinks in terms of correlation of forces. We have to demonstrate to him the correlations of forces have turned against his objectives. He cannot win, and is about to lose what he has gained. When he sees that, that's when he comes to the negotiating table with the white flag."

Referring to whether the inclusion of Britain or even Turkiye in the coaltion of the willing for the defense and security of Europe would be positive, Brzezinski concurred: "I think so. I mean, my hat goes off to President Macron, Prime Minister Starmer, for taking this initiative. They're trying to leverage your current European power to address the issue of the moment. My fear is that their ambitions aren't large enough. I'm not sure 20,000 to 30,000 forces are enough. I think it has to be three to four divisions, only if there's real mass and capability that entice the United States to really backstop that force. And, you know, you're asking about the Turks. They have one of the largest forces in Europe, capable forces, for them to be there not only provides military operational capacity, it's an important geopolitical signal to Putin. And I have to add, it is important that Greece contributes to this force. I'm disappointed that Greece, such a long-standing NATO ally, is hesitant to contribute to this force, it needs to be part of it." 

Concerning the fact that Greece is the only country globally facing a casus belli if it acts on its sovereign rights, Brzezinski underlined, "Again, Turkey is not a perfect ally, it's a long-standing ally. I have some familiarity with the tensions in this region, much of it caused by Turkey. In the long run, Turkey has actually been largely supportive of every major NATO operation. Turkey has been largely supported of Ukraine. I want to see that capability in that deterrent force. I want to see Greek capability in that deterrent force." 

(The interview is available at the following link: https://youtu.be/cBdL3juXjyo)